what win percent will turn a profit in 1-UP SNG's?

This seems like an important question to ask myself, since a huge portion of my potential winnings will come from 1-UP SNG's.

The answer is at least 56%. In order to break even, I have to win 55% of the 1-UP SNG's that I enter, and everything .

That might sound like a lot, but keep in mind, all I have to do is beat 3 out of 6 people in order to make it to this goal. Most players in these tournaments aren't that good at poker, don't take the payout structure into account in their strategy and most don't even have a strategy.

If I win 80% of the time, I will be making a profit of 45%, which over a hundred games (about 30 hours) is a profit of $150 or about $5/hour.

That profit goes up to $350/hundred games at the $5 entry level for a return of more than $10/hour.

And of course the profit would double again at the $10 entry level for a return of more than $20/hour.

At that level, however, I will run into game availability issues during all but a couple of peak hours per day.

I also have to accept the possibility that winning 80% of the time is unrealistic, particularly as I advance in stakes. But, even at the $10 tournament entry level, I don't think I will encounter a lot of wise players. 

If I am calmly executing my in-game strategy (may be easier said than done some hours), I think I can beat players who are maybe more experienced at cash games than I am.

I also have to accept that sometimes the deck is going to hit me in the fucking face through the whole SNG and I will start thinking I am a poker god. I will need to not embrace that thought any more than is absolutely necessary to keep me playing. (I am totally a poker god, ya'll)

Hour 1 (of so many hours)

I just finished an hour of $0.05/$0.10 PLO and folded almost everything. I called $0.2 once with QsJs8d5d but it got 4 bet up to almost $3 to see the flop. It was about the best hand I saw, I would have flopped a straight against AAxx KKxx that only had runner runner outs, but I couldn't pull the trigger on a call preflop...

Long story short: -$1.90 in PLO (blinds and a few flops that I missed)

I also played two 6 player SNG 1up's for $3.30 each. I cashed in both. I wish I had some memorable hands, but I don't, really. I was short stack and got AA all in vs. 55 and my hand held up. I wasn't all in again on either table. I try to avoid going all in during those 1-up tournaments because it doesn't pay to finish with a lot of chips, it just pays to make it to 3rd place.

+$5.40 in SNG

For my first hour of this experiment, I am up a whopping $3.50, which is in the $3-5/hour range I figured,but could have been a lot higher if I won even one decent sized PLO pot. I really think the /hour range at these limits could even be a little higher, maybe like $4-8. I should really be playing 3 or more SNG's per hour.

It isn't exactly sexy, but it is a profit...

I will bore the world with more later.

day 1 - setting my limits

My name is Mike Mayberry, and I am making the dumbest decision of my life. I need money to bankroll a change of professions, so I am going to try to finance that by winning at low stakes poker.

Here is the goal:

$2000 profit by December 5th, 2015.

Here is my current bankroll: $100 on Bet Online

Here are my games:

$0.05/$0.10 PLO

$3 NLHE Turbo 1 Up SNG's

Earnings goal: $3-5/hour

Hours needed to level up: 40-50 hours

Once I reach $300, I will go up to:

$0.10/$0.25 PLO

$5 NLHE Turbo 1 Up SNG's

Earnings goal: $10-15/hour

Hours needed to level 3: 15-25 hours

Once I reach $500, I will go up to:

$0.25/$0.50 PLO

$10 NLHE Turbo 1 Up SNG's

Hours to goal: 100 hours

At that level, I am confident that I will be able to make $15-25/hour of play on one PLO table and 1-3 SNG tables. Traffic is pretty light on BetOnline, so I probably can't multi-table PLO unless I play short handed, and my PLO strategy isn't great in a short handed game.

I would like to reach $2500 (leaving a $500 bankroll) by December 5th. 

I anticipate playing 5-8 hours a day, which means I will go up to level 2 on or near 11/13/15.

I anticipate going up to level 3 on or near 11/18/15.

Once I reach $600, I will begin making $100 cashouts. I plan to make 1 to 2 cashouts per day starting 11/19.