Thursday, November 5, 2015

what win percent will turn a profit in 1-UP SNG's?

This seems like an important question to ask myself, since a huge portion of my potential winnings will come from 1-UP SNG's.

The answer is at least 56%. In order to break even, I have to win 55% of the 1-UP SNG's that I enter, and everything .

That might sound like a lot, but keep in mind, all I have to do is beat 3 out of 6 people in order to make it to this goal. Most players in these tournaments aren't that good at poker, don't take the payout structure into account in their strategy and most don't even have a strategy.

If I win 80% of the time, I will be making a profit of 45%, which over a hundred games (about 30 hours) is a profit of $150 or about $5/hour.

That profit goes up to $350/hundred games at the $5 entry level for a return of more than $10/hour.

And of course the profit would double again at the $10 entry level for a return of more than $20/hour.

At that level, however, I will run into game availability issues during all but a couple of peak hours per day.

I also have to accept the possibility that winning 80% of the time is unrealistic, particularly as I advance in stakes. But, even at the $10 tournament entry level, I don't think I will encounter a lot of wise players. 

If I am calmly executing my in-game strategy (may be easier said than done some hours), I think I can beat players who are maybe more experienced at cash games than I am.

I also have to accept that sometimes the deck is going to hit me in the fucking face through the whole SNG and I will start thinking I am a poker god. I will need to not embrace that thought any more than is absolutely necessary to keep me playing. (I am totally a poker god, ya'll)

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